January 6, 2005

People, not force, will win this war

There was a fatal shooting in Narathiwat and an arson attack in Yala,

but the first anniversary of the start of the armed rebellion for an

independent homeland by Islamic extremists passed without major violence

on Tuesday. Security forces were on high alert across the deepest South

and it is thought this discouraged the insurgents from launching a major

show of force of their own.

This relative calm should not, however, lull the authorities on the

ground and in Bangkok into believing the insurgents are now incapable of

mounting an attack on the scale of the Jan 4, 2004 assault on an army

armoury in Narathiwat's Cho Airong district from which they stole more

than 400 M16 assault rifles and left dead four sentries in the process.

It is still unknown whether the bulk of the stolen guns remain hidden

inside Thailand for use by insurgents at a later date or were smuggled

out of the country.

If the death toll among the victims of the insurgency and the ease with

which the militants are able to continue their reign of terror are any

indication, the threat in the deep South will remain a potent one for

some time yet to come. Government forces have made headway in dealing

with the insurgency by last month arresting a handful of key suspects,

but there are more insurgents still at large and mingling with innocent

Muslims And when the opportunity arises, these people are still killing

officers of the state and ordinary citizens going about their normal

activities.

The insurgents have conducted a largely successful guerrilla campaign

in the South using such tactics as arson attacks on schools, bombing

civilian and government targets where people gather and shootings from

the back of motorcycles. Despite a heavy troop presence and regular road

patrols and roadblocks, the government forces have made little ground in

curbing the violence.

This failure brings into question the wisdom of the government's

five-year plan, reportedly initiated by Prime Minister Thaksin

Shinawatra, to establish a new army division in charge of security in

the three most troubled provinces _ Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani _ at an

estimated cost of 50 billion baht. The new division will be equipped

with state-of-the-art weaponry and other equipment and will be

independent of the 4th Army already based in the South.

The deployment of large numbers of troops to deal with small bands of

insurgents is the proverbial ``riding an elephant to catch a

grasshopper''. The insurgents do not have fixed bases, they move freely

among local people and melt back into them after carrying out an attack.

A heavy troop presence will be of little help in combating such

guerrilla actions. This is work best done by small special forces units

well-trained in counter-insurgency operations.

The support of the public is essential for any success in the war

against the Islamic insurgency. But the government has still not given

this vital aspect enough emphasis, preferring instead to focus almost

exclusively on the troop build-up and suppression drive. This may stem

in part from a distrust of local Muslim spiritual and community leaders,

many of whom have complained openly of being denied a role in solving

the unrest.

Winning the hearts and minds of the local Muslim population, especially

the spiritual and community leaders, is as important in this war on

terror as defeating the insurgents. The insurgents need the people for

food, clothing, medicines, shelter and even hiding places. Thus, it is

essential that the insurgents be separated from the ordinary people

whose only real interests are to live in peace and to be able to pursue

a normal livelihood.

To bring an end to the distrust many southern people have of the state

and to clear up the misunderstandings that have been allowed to develop

over the years, government leaders must reach out more to southern

Muslims and treat them as equals and with respect. Grant them active

participation in the effort to solve the unrest and allow their voices

to be heard and respond to their contributions.